the approximations of Elon Musk’s peace plan

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In an October 3 tweet, billionaire Elon Musk proposed a “peace plan” for Ukraine, based on UN-supervised elections in the Russian-occupied territories in the east of the country.

In a tweet from October 3, billionaire Elon Musk has proposed a “peace plan” for Ukraine, based on UN-supervised elections in the Russian-occupied territories in the east of the country. According to him, ” most of Ukraine unequivocally wants to be part of Ukraine, but some eastern parts have Russian majorities and prefer Russia. ” And of tweet a map of the 2012 legislative electionswhere the Party of Regions, “ prorussian », spring majority in the south-east of Ukraine. Something to delight the Russian representative to the UN, who welcomed that ” Elon Musk is digging deeper and deeper into the true origins of the Ukrainian crisis. A commendable step! “.

This proposal by the billionaire, sharply criticized by kyiv, is in fact based on an inaccurate reading of the situation. The card is from 10 years ago. But since then, things have changed. In the last presidential election of 2019, pro-European Volodymyr Zelensky won with 73% of the vote, coming first in all regions not occupied by the Russians at the time, except for Lviv. For Alexandra Goujon, lecturer at the University of Burgundy, the trend, at that time, was rather to erase regional differences.

But the most problematic in Elon Musk’s reasoning remains the idea of ​​equivalence that he induces between a vote for a candidate called ” prorussian and the desire to be annexed by Moscow. Because no candidate in the past has proposed secession. This is what would have pushed Putin to intervene, according to Alexandra Goujon. According to her, ” the term “pro-Russian” did not at all mean wanting to be administered by Russia. »

It should be noted, finally, that during the referendum on independence in 1991, the yes vote largely won in almost all regions, including the south-east. Crimea also voted in favor, even though the score was only 54%.

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